At least 570 people were killed in 596 security-related incidents recorded across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory in July 2026, according to a new report by SARI Global.
The security intelligence and risk analysis firm, however, said the number of incidents and fatalities declined significantly compared with the previous month, even as armed groups intensified attacks on humanitarian operations and critical infrastructure in the North-East.
SARI Global’s Nigeria Monthly Security Overview for July 2026 recorded a 32.4 per cent decline in security incidents from the 882 recorded in June, while fatalities fell by 28 per cent from 792 deaths in the same period.
The report also highlighted increased activity by the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), particularly against schools and humanitarian supply routes in Borno and Yobe states.
SARI Global is a United States-registered security intelligence firm providing conflict monitoring, threat analysis, operational risk advisory, climate intelligence and crisis management support to international organisations, humanitarian agencies, diplomatic missions and businesses operating in high-risk environments.
The firm said most of the violence recorded in July was concentrated in the first half of the month, with the first week accounting for 151 incidents and 206 confirmed deaths.
It described the period as the deadliest week of the month, with mass-casualty attacks and communal violence reported across parts of the North-West and Middle Belt.
Among the major incidents were an ethnic clash in Niger State on July 1 that left 40 people dead, an attack on a Kaduna village that claimed 30 lives and a series of bandit attacks on farming communities in Zamfara and Benue states.
Incident levels peaked in the second week, when 168 events were recorded, before declining through the rest of the month.
According to the report, however, the distribution of fatalities showed that July’s violence was concentrated in particular areas rather than spread evenly across the country.
It identified rural banditry as the deadliest form of violence during the month, surpassing deaths linked to urban criminal activity and government security operations.
Of the 570 confirmed fatalities, 434 occurred in the armed-conflict category, comprising mainly bandit and communal attacks concentrated in Zamfara, Niger, Kaduna and Benue states.
The report said several attacks on farming communities resulted in more than 20 deaths, including a July 22 raid in Zamfara State in which 25 farmers were reportedly killed.
Borno records highest number of incidents
Borno State recorded the highest number of security incidents during the month, with 80 cases, according to the report.
Despite recording the highest number of incidents, the state had 34 confirmed fatalities, with violence concentrated around Monguno, the Dikwa-Ngala corridor, Gwoza and areas around Maiduguri.
Zamfara and Plateau states followed with 37 incidents each, while Sokoto recorded 33.
Other states and locations with significant numbers of incidents included Lagos with 26, Rivers with 25, the FCT with 22, Katsina with 19, and Benue and Yobe with 18 incidents each.
ISWAP targets school, aid supplies
The report identified an attempted mass abduction at the Federal Government Girls College in Monguno, Borno State, on July 19 as one of the most significant security incidents in the North-East during the month.
According to SARI Global, ISWAP fighters attempted to breach the school’s perimeter at about 2am, using the cover of darkness to gain access to the facility.
The intervention of Army troops reportedly prevented the abduction, although the ensuing confrontation inside the school compound left three people dead and another person missing.
SARI Global said the incident represented the third attack or attempted attack on an educational institution in Borno within approximately two months.
It followed an abduction in Askira Uba in May and an attack in Lassa in June.
The report said the repeated targeting of educational facilities indicated that schools remained important symbolic and operational targets for ISWAP.
Beyond schools, the insurgent group was also accused of targeting humanitarian supply chains along the Monguno-Gajiram road.
On July 4, ISWAP operatives reportedly established an illegal checkpoint on the road, intercepted a truck conveying food supplies for humanitarian organisations and set the vehicle ablaze.
SARI Global said it was the third arson attack involving aid supplies on the route in less than three weeks.
The report also recorded an attack a day earlier in Geidam Local Government Area of Yobe State, where ISWAP fighters allegedly infiltrated the area and set fire to a truck carrying pharmaceutical products destined for Chad.
The repeated attacks, according to the security firm, suggested that humanitarian cargo was being deliberately selected.
It said the strategy appeared designed to intimidate commercial transport operators, discourage them from working with humanitarian organisations and disrupt the delivery of essential commodities to communities in the Lake Chad Basin.
Security alert over planned attacks
The report also disclosed that the Department of State Services had issued an alert over intelligence indicating plans by armed groups to carry out coordinated attacks in Michika, Adamawa State, and Askira Uba, Borno State.
According to SARI Global, the alert came amid indications of the breakdown of a ceasefire arrangement.
Government officials, councillors, traditional district heads, religious leaders and residents were reportedly identified as potential targets.
Armed groups remain deadliest
An analysis of the actors responsible for the violence showed a significant disparity between the number of operations conducted by government forces and the fatalities associated with non-state armed groups.
Government-affiliated forces were identified as the most frequent initiating actors, accounting for 266 of the 596 incidents recorded in July.
The high number was attributed largely to law-enforcement operations, arrests, seizures and security checkpoints.
However, government forces were linked to 110 of the 570 confirmed fatalities.
By comparison, non-state armed groups initiated 186 incidents but were associated with 290 deaths, the highest fatality figure among all actor categories.
Unknown or unattributed actors accounted for 108 deaths from 62 incidents, while civilians were linked to 49 deaths from 38 incidents.
Criminal actors accounted for 13 deaths from 28 incidents, while political actors were linked to seven incidents, with no confirmed fatalities.
SARI Global said the disparity between the frequency of government security operations and the number of deaths attributed to armed groups was significant.
“The gap between activity and control is the analytical point. A busy security apparatus is conducting many operations, but those operations are not translating into a suppression of the lethal threat, which continues to sit with bandits and insurgents across the rural North-West, Middle Belt and North-East,” the report stated.
It added that “a busy security apparatus is not the same as an improving environment.”
Army expands operational structure
The report also assessed the recent expansion of the Nigerian Army’s operational structure, describing President Bola Tinubu’s creation of four additional divisions as a strategic response to the spread of insecurity beyond the North-East, where the insurgency originated.
Under the new structure, the Army’s 7th Division in Maiduguri will continue to oversee Borno and Yobe states.
A new 10th Division headquartered in Jalingo will be responsible for Taraba and Adamawa states, while the newly established 9th Division in Ilorin will cover Kwara and Niger states.
SARI Global said the expansion could improve the military’s ability to respond to threats across wider geographical areas.
It warned, however, that the reorganisation could also produce unintended consequences, including friction at security checkpoints, longer delays for humanitarian convoys and additional displacement of vulnerable populations.
The report concluded that although the overall number of security incidents and fatalities declined in July, the concentration of lethal attacks in rural communities and the continued ability of bandits and insurgents to disrupt humanitarian access showed that Nigeria’s security challenges remained substantial.
The figures, it said, underline the need for security operations to translate into sustained control of vulnerable areas rather than merely increased operational activity.
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