A new study has estimated that more than 2,700 people may have died from heat-related causes during the intense heatwaves that swept across England and Wales in May and June, with researchers linking a significant proportion of the deaths to human-induced climate change.
The research, released on Monday, was conducted by experts from Imperial College London, the Met Office and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The team combined weather observations, climate modelling and previous studies on excess mortality during extreme heat events to assess the impact of the unusually high temperatures.
According to the findings, more than 2,700 deaths were likely associated with the two heatwaves, with around 42 per cent of the fatalities attributed to additional warming caused by climate change.
Researchers estimated that approximately 550 people died during the first heatwave between May 21 and May 29, while nearly 2,200 deaths occurred during the second spell of extreme heat from June 18 to June 28.
The United Kingdom and several parts of Europe experienced unusually early and severe heatwaves during the period. England recorded temperatures of 35.1 degrees Celsius in May and 37.7 degrees Celsius in June, setting new monthly records.
Mark McCarthy, science manager with the Met Office’s climate attribution team, described the events as exceptional both in intensity and timing.
“These were extreme heatwaves for the UK and across western Europe, particularly because they occurred so early in the year,” he said.
The researchers said climate change had intensified the heatwaves, estimating that peak daytime temperatures were between three and four degrees Celsius higher than they would have been without human-driven global warming.
While the findings are based on modelling rather than official mortality records, public health experts said they highlight the growing risks posed by rising temperatures.
Lea Berrang Ford, head of the UK Health Security Agency’s Centre for Climate and Health Security, said the estimates provide an indication of the scale of the threat extreme heat poses to public health.
She noted that although the figures do not represent observed mortality data, they help illustrate the increasing danger associated with more frequent and intense heatwaves.
The UK Health Security Agency is expected to release its official assessment of heat-related deaths in the coming weeks, based on death registration data from the recent heat events.
The study adds to mounting concerns about the country's preparedness for the impacts of climate change. Last year, the Climate Change Committee, the government’s independent climate adviser, warned that the UK was not adequately prepared for rising temperatures and other climate-related risks.
In a report published in May, the committee projected that 92 per cent of homes in Britain could experience overheating by 2050. It urged the government to introduce maximum workplace temperature limits and increase investment in cooling systems for public facilities, including hospitals and schools.
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