Nigeria’s exports to China plunged by 54.3 per cent to N506.57bn in the second quarter of 2026, despite the introduction of a zero-tariff arrangement designed to improve access for Nigerian goods to the Chinese market.
The decline, representing a loss of N601.82bn compared with the corresponding period of 2025, occurred alongside a significant increase in imports from China, further widening Nigeria’s trade deficit with the Asian country.
An analysis of foreign trade statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria’s exports to China dropped from N1.108tn in Q2 2025 to N506.57bn in Q2 2026.
In contrast, imports from China rose by N955.58bn, representing a 19.26 per cent increase from N4.96tn to N5.92tn within the same period.
The development pushed Nigeria’s trade deficit with China up by N1.56tn, or 40.43 per cent, from N3.85tn in the second quarter of 2025 to N5.41tn in Q2 2026.
The figures underscore the widening imbalance in bilateral trade, with Nigeria purchasing significantly more goods from China than it exports to the country, despite preferential access to the Chinese market.
In practical terms, Nigeria imported approximately N11.68 worth of Chinese goods for every N1 worth of merchandise it exported to the country during the quarter. This compared with an import-to-export ratio of about N4.48 to N1 in the corresponding period of 2025.
China also consolidated its position as Nigeria’s biggest import source, accounting for 41.02 per cent of the country’s total import bill of N14.42tn in Q2 2026, compared with 32.45 per cent a year earlier.
The sharp fall in exports to China was particularly striking against the backdrop of improved performance in Nigeria’s overall merchandise exports.
According to the NBS data, Nigeria’s total exports increased by 18.77 per cent, from N22.75tn in Q2 2025 to N27.02tn in Q2 2026. Exports to Asian countries also expanded by 17.55 per cent, rising from N7.42tn to N8.72tn.
However, China’s contribution to Nigeria’s exports to Asia declined considerably, with its share falling from 14.93 per cent to 5.81 per cent, representing a drop of 9.13 percentage points.
Similarly, China's share of Nigeria’s total merchandise exports contracted from 4.87 per cent to 1.87 per cent during the period.
India, on the other hand, recorded stronger growth as Nigeria’s leading export destination in Asia. Exports to the country rose by 65.95 per cent, from N1.98tn in Q2 2025 to N3.29tn in Q2 2026.
The contrasting performances suggest that Nigeria’s declining exports to China were not necessarily a reflection of weakening demand across the broader Asian market.
A quarter-on-quarter assessment also showed that Nigeria’s exports to China fell by 12.99 per cent, from N582.20bn in Q1 2026 to N506.57bn in Q2.
However, the figures require some qualification because China’s zero-tariff arrangement with Nigeria did not commence until May 1, 2026. This means that April exports were recorded before the policy took effect, leaving only May and June within the period of preferential access.
Consequently, the quarterly statistics do not provide sufficient evidence to establish whether the tariff concession improved or weakened Nigeria’s export performance during its initial implementation.
Also, the NBS figures represent the naira value of merchandise traded rather than the physical volume of goods exported. As a result, the aggregate data do not establish whether the decline was driven by lower shipment volumes, changes in international commodity prices or shifts in the composition of products exported to China.
China had, on May 1, 2026, commenced the implementation of its zero-tariff policy for Nigeria and 19 other African countries under an arrangement scheduled to remain in force until April 30, 2028.
The policy extended preferential market access previously available to 33 African least developed countries, bringing the total number of African beneficiaries to 53.
Under the arrangement, eligible Nigerian products are entitled to duty-free access to the Chinese market, subject to applicable customs procedures, rules of origin and tariff quotas.
Speaking in Abuja in March while announcing the agreement, Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria, Yu Dunhai, said the initiative was expected to open up greater opportunities for Nigerian exporters.
“On March 26th, China and Nigeria signed the framework agreement on economic partnership for shared development. So, we are now working together to ensure the zero-tariff policy takes effect on May 1st. That means starting from May 1st of this year, all Nigerian products, 100 per cent, will enjoy zero tariff when exported to China,” he said.
The ambassador explained that the arrangement followed the signing of an economic partnership framework between both countries on March 26, aimed at deepening bilateral economic cooperation, trade and investment.
He said agriculture and manufacturing were among the sectors expected to benefit significantly from the improved access to China's vast consumer market.
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