The House of Representatives on Wednesday stepped down consideration of the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) after sharp divisions emerged over crude oil price benchmarks and their impact on projected government revenue.
The reports were presented at plenary by James Faleke, chairman of the Joint Committees on Finance and National Planning and Economic Development. Lawmakers later resolved into the Committee of Supply to examine the proposals but ran into disagreements over key macroeconomic assumptions.
At the centre of the dispute was the joint committee’s recommendation to revise the executive’s crude oil price benchmarks of $64.85, $64.30 and $65.50 per barrel for 2026, 2027 and 2028 to $60, $65 and $70 respectively, citing global geopolitical tensions and oil market volatility.
Speaker of the House, Tajudeen Abbas, cautioned that adjusting the oil benchmark without recalibrating other variables would distort the entire framework, particularly revenue projections and the size of the 2026 budget.
He questioned whether the committee had adequately accounted for the revenue losses that would arise from a lower oil price and how such gaps would be covered—either through higher non-oil revenues or additional borrowing.
President Bola Tinubu transmitted the MTEF/FSP to the House last week, after which it was referred to the joint committees. A public hearing was held on Tuesday with members of the federal government’s economic team, including the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, and the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu.
In presenting the report, Faleke said Nigeria’s crude oil output outlook was positive, noting strong month-on-month production gains among OPEC members in November 2025, according to the December OPEC report.
The framework projects exchange rates of ₦1,512 in 2026, ₦1,432.15 in 2027 and ₦1,383.18 in 2028, while inflation is expected to decline from 16.5 per cent to nine per cent within the period. Real GDP growth is forecast at 4.68 per cent in 2026, rising to 7.9 per cent by 2028.
On spending, the proposed 2026 federal budget is pegged at ₦54.46 trillion, with retained revenue of ₦34.33 trillion, new borrowings of ₦17.88 trillion, and debt servicing estimated at ₦15.52 trillion.
Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu supported the call for a conservative oil benchmark but warned that it would inevitably create a revenue gap that must be clearly addressed in the framework.
Adding to the concerns, Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, Saidu Abdullahi, criticised the late submission of the MTEF/FSP, saying it violated the Fiscal Responsibility Act and limited the depth of legislative review.
With no consensus reached, Faleke moved a motion for the reports to be stepped down for further work. The House adopted the motion.
Speaker Abbas said the joint committees would revisit the assumptions and present a revised report to the House. The Senate approved the MTEF/FSP on Tuesday.
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