The Federal Government ended the 2025 fiscal year with a revenue shortfall estimated at about N30tn, intensifying concerns over Nigeria’s budget credibility, rising debt burden and fragile economic recovery.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, disclosed the figure on Tuesday while briefing the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning during discussions on the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).
Edun said the government had projected total revenues of N40.8tn for 2025 but now expects actual receipts to stand at roughly N10.7tn.
The revenue projection was designed to fund the N54.9tn 2025 “budget of restoration,” aimed at stabilising the economy, strengthening security and laying a foundation for long-term growth. However, the minister acknowledged that fiscal outcomes had fallen far short of expectations.
“Based on current performance, federal revenues for the year are likely to close at around N10.7tn, compared with the N40.8tn originally projected,” Edun told lawmakers.
He blamed the shortfall largely on weak oil and gas receipts, particularly Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax from oil companies, as well as broad underperformance across several non-oil revenue lines.
The disclosure stands in contrast to President Bola Tinubu’s earlier assertion in September that the government had already met its 2025 revenue target months ahead of schedule.
“Today I can stand here before you to brag: Nigeria is not borrowing. We have met our revenue target for the year and we met it in August,” Tinubu had said during a visit by members of The Buhari Organisation to the Presidential Villa.
Edun admitted that the revenue gap severely constrained execution of the 2025 budget. He said that even after raising about N14.1tn through borrowing, total available funds were still insufficient to fully finance the N54.9tn spending plan.
Despite the fiscal stress, the minister said the government continued to meet critical obligations, including payment of salaries, statutory transfers and servicing of domestic and external debts, through what he described as careful and innovative treasury management.
On expenditure performance, Edun disclosed that capital releases to ministries, departments and agencies in 2024 amounted to N5.2tn out of a budgeted N7.1tn, translating to a 73 per cent performance. He added that overall capital spending, including multilateral and bilateral-funded projects, reached N11.1tn out of N13.7tn, or 84 per cent.
He warned that continued dependence on optimistic oil revenue assumptions posed serious risks to fiscal sustainability, urging policymakers to align spending plans more closely with realistic revenue expectations.
“We must remain ambitious, but our spending must be based on revenues that actually materialise,” Edun said.
Also addressing the lawmakers, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said the MTEF and FSP were prepared after wide consultations with stakeholders across government, the private sector, civil society and development partners.
Bagudu acknowledged sharp debates within the Economic Management Team over revenue projections, noting that while some members favoured conservative assumptions based on historical trends, others pushed for ambitious targets to drive improved revenue mobilisation.
He disclosed that although an oil production target of 2.06 million barrels per day was retained for policy direction, a more cautious benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day was adopted for revenue calculations in the 2026 budget framework.
Earlier, Chairman of the House Committee on Finance, James Faleke, cautioned against unrealistic budgeting, warning that inflated revenue projections often result in poor implementation, stalled projects and widening fiscal deficits.
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