Global oil markets could face a sharp price surge if tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt shipping routes, Qatar’s Energy Minister, Saad Al-Kaabi, has warned.
Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Al-Kaabi said crude oil prices could climb to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if tankers remain unable to navigate the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping companies suspended operations through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal on March 2 amid heightened security concerns following military strikes by the United States and Israel targeting sites in Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is considered one of the world’s most vital energy routes, as it serves as the main export channel for oil and gas produced across the Gulf region.
Al-Kaabi warned that continued disruption to tanker traffic could severely strain global energy supply chains and trigger significant price increases in both oil and gas markets.
According to him, natural gas prices could also surge to about $40 per metric million British thermal units (MMBtu) if the crisis persists - nearly four times higher than levels recorded before the conflict escalated.
He further cautioned that energy exporters in the Gulf may soon be forced to declare force majeure, a legal provision that allows companies to suspend contractual obligations when extraordinary circumstances prevent them from fulfilling supply commitments.
“Everybody that has not called for force majeure, we expect will do so in the next few days if the situation continues,” he said, adding that exporters who fail to do so may eventually face legal liability for supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy firm of Qatar, has already suspended production of liquefied natural gas after Iranian military attacks damaged some of its operating facilities.
Al-Kaabi said authorities were still assessing the extent of the damage and could not yet determine how long repairs would take.
He added that even if hostilities were to end immediately, it would still take weeks or months for the country to fully restore normal export operations due to logistical challenges and infrastructure repairs.
Elsewhere in the region, Saudi Aramco temporarily shut down its Ras Tanura oil refinery after a fire reportedly triggered by debris from an Iranian drone strike.
The disruptions in the global supply chain are already being felt in some markets. In Nigeria, petrol prices have risen following the tightening of global supply.
On March 5, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited increased petrol pump prices to N933 per litre in Lagos and N960 per litre in Abuja.
The price adjustment followed an earlier increase by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which raised its ex-gantry price for petrol from N774 to N874 per litre, reflecting mounting pressure on global energy markets as geopolitical tensions escalate.
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