Nigeria failed once again to meet its crude oil production quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in April, despite a modest increase in output and a rally in global crude prices.
New data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that the country produced an average of 1.49 million barrels of crude oil per day during the month, slightly below its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.
According to the NUPRC figures, average daily crude production stood at 1,488,540 barrels, representing roughly 99 per cent of Nigeria’s allocation under the OPEC agreement. When condensate production was included, total oil output rose to about 1.66 million barrels per day.
The latest figures mean Nigeria has now fallen short of its OPEC production target for nine consecutive months since July 2025, highlighting the continued challenges facing Africa’s largest oil producer despite repeated government pledges to raise output.
The April performance nevertheless represented an improvement compared to previous months. Combined crude oil and condensate production peaked at 1.85 million barrels per day during the month, while the lowest recorded daily output stood at 1.46 million barrels per day.
The production data also showed a recovery from March levels, when total crude output averaged around 1.38 million barrels per day. That figure itself had been an improvement from February production of 1.31 million barrels per day, but still remained significantly below the OPEC benchmark.
Nigeria’s oil sector has continued to struggle with a combination of crude theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure and inadequate upstream investment, all of which have constrained efforts to fully utilise the country’s production capacity.
The latest NUPRC report appeared to contradict earlier comments from the regulator suggesting that national oil production had recently averaged around 1.8 million barrels per day.
Analysts say the discrepancy reflects the difference between occasional peak production levels and sustained monthly averages, which remain below the government’s target.
The persistent production shortfall comes at a sensitive time for Nigeria’s economy, which remains heavily dependent on oil revenues to support public finances, foreign exchange earnings and budget implementation.
Higher international crude prices in recent months have offered some relief to government revenues, but analysts note that Nigeria’s inability to consistently meet its production quota limits the extent to which the country can fully benefit from favourable market conditions.
Data from the NUPRC also showed that Nigeria’s crude production weakened significantly toward the end of 2025. Output declined from 1.436 million barrels per day in November to 1.422 million barrels per day in December before rising slightly to 1.46 million barrels per day in January 2026.
Although January marked a brief rebound, the recovery proved temporary as production dropped sharply again in February, widening the gap between actual output and Nigeria’s OPEC allocation.
Throughout 2025, Nigeria fell below its production target in nine months, exceeding or meeting the quota only in January, June and July.
The country had begun the year strongly, recording production of 1.54 million barrels per day in January 2025, surpassing its OPEC allocation by roughly 38,700 barrels daily. However, output slipped below target in February at 1.47 million barrels per day and declined further in March to 1.40 million barrels per day, one of the largest shortfalls recorded during the year.
Industry stakeholders have repeatedly stressed the need for stronger investment, improved pipeline security and faster implementation of energy sector reforms to stabilise production levels.
The Federal Government has continued to intensify efforts to combat oil theft and attract fresh upstream investment, particularly following the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act.
However, experts warn that without sustained improvements in security infrastructure and operational efficiency, Nigeria may continue to struggle to meet its OPEC production targets despite its substantial reserves and installed production capacity.
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